Built for the Bulgarian balancing-group reality — the renewables share keeps climbing, midday prices collapse, and every deviation between your schedule and your actual output is settled against your balancing group. We build on how the market here actually works.
The forecasting platform for Bulgarian renewables — day-ahead production and IBEX price for tomorrow, intraday position updates and P10–P90 bands. Our day-ahead output forecast beats the ENTSO-E benchmark by +39.7% (median over live days, out-of-sample), so your schedule is tighter before the gate.
As the renewables share climbs and cost-socialisation shrinks, the risk of deviating from your schedule falls increasingly on the balancing group. Forecast accuracy becomes a direct lever on profitability.
Directional market context, not cited figures — Bulgaria's imbalance economics are less openly published than some EU markets. Public sources: IBEX (БНЕБ), ESO, ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.
Three forecasting products that solve the market cost end to end — day-ahead accuracy, DAM price, and a battery signal, in one platform built for the Bulgarian energy exchange.
Our day-ahead production forecast beats the ENTSO-E day-ahead benchmark, so your schedule is tighter before the gate and less of it is settled as imbalance.
Tomorrow's IBEX day-ahead curve, produced before the gate. Where the price collapses at midday and where it peaks in the evening.
When to buy and when to sell along the price curve. Don't generate into the negative — store at midday, sell in the evening.
Direct order submission to IBEX — soon you'll place your day-ahead and intraday orders straight from the platform, driven by the forecast. In active development.
The forecasting system feeds the aggregator DAM price, production and deviations; you turn the forecast into orders on IBEX — in the day-ahead, intraday and balancing segments.
An aggregator trades across three segments. The same forecast feeds all three — from tomorrow's price to the intraday deviation.
Tomorrow's price curve shows where the price collapses at midday and where it peaks in the evening, so you can shape your IBEX day-ahead order before the gate.
Once the per-park nowcast is live (in rollout for Bulgaria), the intraday production estimate will tell you how much to buy or sell on the IBEX intraday auctions and the continuous SIDC market, to shrink your deviation.
The deviation between your schedule and your actual output is what gets settled against your balancing group. Sharper forecasts and intraday updates keep that gap small — so less volume is settled at the imbalance price.
Our day-ahead production forecast is production-grade: it beats the ENTSO-E day-ahead benchmark by +39.7% (median over live days, 77% win-rate, out-of-sample). The DAM price forecast runs at ~22.5 €/MWh mean error with P10–P90 bands, built on public market data (ENTSO-E load & RES forecasts and coupled/neighbouring market prices). Both are produced daily before the day-ahead gate — in time to act on.
No leap of faith. You see the value before committing to anything.
Every day, receive the Bulgarian IBEX day-ahead price forecast for tomorrow, before the market closes. Judge the accuracy yourself — with no data of your own required.
Share your parks and we turn the forecast into your own production profile and day-ahead position for tomorrow — the number you actually bid.
Share your output and we calibrate to your portfolio: a per-park calibration signal and a battery arbitrage signal (per-park intraday correction in rollout for Bulgaria).
Every deviation between your schedule and your actual output is settled against your balancing group. We can't remove the uncertainty. We can give you a sharper day-ahead position — measured +39.7% better than the ENTSO-E benchmark, out-of-sample — plus per-park intraday updates (in rollout for Bulgaria) to show how much to correct.
Intraday forecasts tighten as delivery approaches, shrinking the gap that gets settled as imbalance. We quantify the reduction on your own historical output — conservative assumptions, measured for your portfolio, never a blanket guarantee.
Production error shrinks from day-ahead to intraday as the forecast sharpens toward delivery — by how much, we measure on your parks with a per-park nowcast.
Less deviation means less volume settled at the imbalance price. We estimate the euro reduction on your own historical output — a conservative upper bound, measured for your portfolio, not a guarantee.
Got a battery? On your own historical output we compute how much charge-discharge arbitrage would have earned against the DAM price curve — the specific business case for your storage.
Our forecast skill is evaluated out-of-sample on live data, day by day — +39.7% vs the ENTSO-E day-ahead benchmark, 77% win-rate. We publish what it can — and can't — do.
Everything starts from public sources — IBEX (БНЕБ), ESO, ENTSO-E — numbers you can check yourself.
Next-day price and intraday correction under one roof — the knowledge and the way to act on it in the market.
We don't take a cut of your profit, we don't do route-to-market or PPAs, we don't represent generation. Your forecast provider shouldn't work for your biggest competitor.
Here's exactly what we need and what you get back — proven live on tomorrow, not the past. You decide first, then ask for a meeting.
Declared up front, so you can decide before committing:
If it fits, you ask for a meeting. We sign a mutual NDA first — your data is protected and used only for your forecast, nothing else.
We train on your data (~2–3 days) and give you your own secure login — credentials that expire after 72 hours — on a live dashboard for your portfolio only. No waiting for email: you log in and watch the forecasts update, exploring every horizon. It's the same dashboard a paying customer uses — for Bulgaria the day-ahead bid, DAM price bands and battery arbitrage are live today, with per-park intraday/nowcast in rollout. For each park:
Bulgarian aggregators are looking for exactly this. We're not asking for trust — verify the accuracy of tomorrow's DAM price yourself, free. In return, we'd love 20 minutes to show you the whole platform.
Book a 20-minute demo →